Why DJ3K can break Pete Rose’s All-Time Hits Record

By Cory Puffett

Jeter is inching toward Rose's record, but Pete
doesn't think he'll reach it.

On Wednesday I read an article on ESPN.com that talked about why Rose’s record won’t be touched by Derek Jeter. Pete Rose has done the math, but I found it odd that he kept asking the same rhetorical question: “You think he can do that? At [insert age here]? But let’s say he does…”

Who will have the record when all is said and done?

He's probably, and in fact almost certainly, right. But as a Yankee fan, and a Derek Jeter fan, I refuse to let my hope die so easily.

This isn't about me wanting Rose to lose the record. But if anyone is ever going to break it, I would want Jeter to be the one; he's the only one I'd ever want to see own that record.

The AL has the advantage of the DH, which means Jeter doesn't have to play shortstop full time to approach the record while staying in pinstripes.

With this swing, Pete Rose earned his 4,192nd career hit,
breaking Ty Cobb's record.

Rose retired at 45 with the record. It's tough to play to that age, but it isn't any tougher today than it was when he played; if anything it might be easier because of the advances in medical and physical science. Jeter could play to that age, have a couple more 200 hit seasons, and then a few seasons between 150 and 180 hits, and that could put him right on the doorstep of the record.

Consider this. Jeter had 216 hits this year, the second most he’s had in his career. Does he consistently hit for 200+? No. But he hasn’t declined as much as we thought he had. He still has not had a season where he’s had fewer than 150 hits (156 in 2003).

Derek Jeter's 3,000th hit was a home run off
David Price at Yankee Stadium.

He is 38 now. If he plays until he is 45, that is seven seasons. But let’s cut it at six more seasons. If over those six seasons he can have two 200 hit seasons, and three 150 hit seasons (and I think it’s realistic that he could be somewhere in between where he could average the right number to get 850 hits over five seasons), that puts him just 102 hits shy of the record at the start of his age-44 season.

How realistic is any of that? Well, I’d say it’s extraordinarily realistic to get those numbers. The question is whether he will actually play that long. I think he can, but will he? If he can play all of them as a Yankee, I think there’s a decent-to-good shot that he will. If he has to switch organizations, I think it’s unlikely, despite what he said earlier this year about being willing to play elsewhere. He has always wanted to be a Yankee, and I think he probably realizes how crushing it would be to Yankee fans like me, and to Jeter fans, also like me. I would be devastated if he were to leave the organization, almost as much as I was when the Red Sox came back to win the 2004 ALCS.

Jeter has a flexible swing, helping him get hits on
"out pitches."

The one other thing Jeter has in his favor right now is that he is the undisputed numero uno. He is the #1 hitter in our lineup. He gets the at-bats he needs to have seasons where he touches 200 hits, or at least gets close to it. He plays on a team that gets a lot of hits, especially home runs, which extend innings and allow him an extra fraction of an at-bat per game, which adds up to be a significant number. Moving him to #2 would have a pretty significant impact on the number of at-bats he gets, but even at that spot he could still get the number of hits I outlined above.

If Pete Rose’s record never gets passed, I will be happy. He deserves that record, if for no other reason than the MLB not lifting his lifetime ban. There’s been talk of lifting the ban after his death, but what good would that do? He deserves to have this record forever.

That said, if it should ever be broken, I wouldn’t want anyone but a class act like Jeter to be the one to break it.

Just for Fun

I decided to do a few calculations for fun. In 1995, Derek Jeter played in 15 games for the Yankees and recorded 12 hits. Not including that year, Jeter has averaged 193.6 hits per season. He has had eight 200+ hit seasons out of 17 in which he’s played at least 100 games (his low, outside of ’95, was 119 in 2003 and he still recorded 156 hits).

Hitting on this pace, he would have 4,272 hits at the end of the 2017 season. He would be 43 years old and would be projected to break the record in the 147^th game of the 2017 season.

But let’s say his bat does falter a bit, and beginning in 2013 Jeter averages 10 fewer hits per season, 183 (we’ll leave out the decimal for this scenario). At the end of the 2017 season he would have 4,219 hits, 37 shy of the all-time record. He would be projected to break the record in the 33^rd game of the 2018 season, Jeter’s age-44 season. In fact, he would still be 43 years old. The 33^rd game of the season would be before his birthday – June 26.

Though he rarely hits for power, Jeter is among the best
in the game's history when it comes to bat control.

Just once more, let’s take off another 10 hits per season. I can’t imagine Jeter only recording an average of 173 hits per season; he’s only hit that few twice, the 2003 season I mentioned before, and his 162-hit 2011 campaign in which he only played in 131 games, the second fewest of his career after ’95.

At the rate of 173 hits per season, he would be sitting at 4,169 hits at the end of the 2017 season, 87 hits shy of the record. He would be projected to break the record in the 79^th game of the season, which would fall about a week after his 44^th birthday.

Of course, these are all projections, there’s no guarantee that he will keep playing that long. But if he chooses to, barring an injury, it actually looks like Pete Rose should be much more worried than he appears to be. But then, maybe he’s talking the way he is about it now because he is worried.

UPDATE:

Around 5 p.m. Wednesday, a couple hours before the Yankees' ALDS Game 3 matchup against Baltimore, Derek Jeter was quoted, saying, "I'm not talking about Pete Rose. I'm trying to win a game."